USA Malaria Risk Rising: Warnings for EN Central, WS Central, FL + OH

April 25th is World Malaria Day.  There are strong links between forecastable environmental conditions and malaria transmission via mosquitos.  Disease forecaster Ascel Bio observed higher than forecast cases in the US over this past winter.  While nearly all malaria cases in the US are imported from malaria endemic countries, weather patterns may lead to increases […]

New Zika Risk Along Mississippi Flyway

Disease forecaster Ascel Bio is issuing a watch notice for the areas around Davenport Iowa and Columbus Mississippi, following the emergence of environmental conditions there that are linked to the spread of the Zika carrying Aedes aegypti mosquito. Zika risk has remained high in roughly two dozen locations in Hawaii, the East Coast and other […]
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Lyme Forecast to Increase in United States

  Ascel Bio assesses that Lyme disease risk is rising in the United States. The widespread warmth in February in the Eastern US (even as temperatures return to seasonal norms) indicate that monitoring and prevention strategies should be underway in the region. Ticks, which feed on deer, rats, and dogs, throughout the year, are more […]
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E. Coli Cases Forecast to Increase in US

Disease forecaster Ascel Bio observed slightly higher than forecast rates of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) in parts of the U.S in the last week of January. Rates have since decreased to within forecast range, but cases are expected to increase over the next few months. The arrival of spring is already bringing increasing temperatures. This provides […]

Mumps Alerts for 6 States

Disease forecaster Ascel Bio is issuing alerts for mumps in 6 states: Missouri, California, Colorado, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, including an ongoing outbreak at the University of Missouri in Columbia. In the first 6 weeks of 2017, the CDC has recorded 767 cases of mumps nationwide, an increase of 468 cases from the same period […]

Chlamydia Alerts in 11 States

Two regions and 11 states geographically dispersed across the United States are reporting significantly higher incidences of chlamydia compared to Ascel Bio forecasts. Warnings are being issued for Kansas, Maine, New Hampshire, and North Dakota, as actual case counts were more than 2 standard deviations above forecasted case counts in the week ending January 22nd, […]

Spike in Pertussis in CO, Mountain Region

Ascel Bio: The Mountain region of the United States experienced a significantly higher number of Pertussis (Whooping Cough) cases in mid-January.  A surge of Pertussis cases (which has a roughly 7-10 day incubation period) coincided with record snows in many parts of the region, and cold January weather. Forecasts for the region had been “on […]

Pacific Mumps – Still “Off the Charts”; Also TX Risk

Ascel Bio: The Pacific region of the United States remains under a watch for Measles, with mid-January 2017 cases still well above forecast ranges.  A spike over the past few weeks has occurred, and follows a concerning number of cases in the Pacific region in December.  Mumps cases in the Pacific region occurred at three times […]

2017 USA Measles Season Starts Today

Disease Forecaster Ascel Bio predicts that this week is the start of the 2017 Measles Season across the USA. Incidence is forecast by Ascel Bio to rise in the US in late January, dip to a slight plateau Feb-Mar, and then rise to a June peak. Measles demonstrates strong seasonality, with peak activity usually falling in the […]

Salmonellosis Watch: IA, KY, ME, MA, NY, UT

by Dan Nguyen Disease forecaster Ascel Bio today is issuing an alert for Salmonellosis disease across the United States. Warnings for Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, New York and Utah are issued as these states are seeing incidence rates above forecast, according to the most recent data from mid-November 2016. Ascel Bio’s projections for these mentioned states continue […]
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Ongoing Cryptosporidiosis Warnings: AL, PA, WA

by Dan Nguyen Disease forecaster Ascel Bio today is re-issuing an alert for Cryptosporidiosis disease across the United States. Warnings for Alabama, Pennsylvania and Washington are issued as these states are seeing incidence rates above forecast, according to the most recent data from mid-November 2016. Ascel Bio’s current forecasts for all mentioned states show a largely decreasing […]

Zika Virus in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is in peak season for Zika and dengue transmission. The spread of Zika in the region has been slower than in the Americas, though over 1200 cases of Zika have been reported across the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore, and more countries continue to report new infections, including Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia. The slower […]