Giardiasis Cases Forecast to Peak in Northern US

Ascel Bio reiterates its forecast that Giardiasis cases will begin to spike in the U.S. in the month ahead. Giardiasis, caused by the Giardia lamblia parasite, is widespread across the U.S., but disproportionately affects the northern half of the continental states. And, as much as we love cute pictures of beavers, fresh waves of recent studies are […]

Singapore Experiencing Fresh Zika Cases

In Singapore, while only 1 Zika case was reported in the last week, 33 cases have been reported in 2017, most of them in the past month. Singapore is the only country in SE or East Asia with a current travel advisory issued by the CDC. It is unlikely that Zika transmission is contained to […]

Yellow Fever Outbreak in Brazil

In Brazil, between December 2016 and May 15th, 2017, there have been 715 confirmed cases of yellow fever, including 240 deaths. 6 states in Brazil have confirmed local transmission, while 5 other countries – Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Suriname – have a few reported suspected or confirmed cases. As the weather cools in the […]

New Ebola Outbreak Tests International Response

A new outbreak of Ebola virus is ongoing in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Since the first new Ebola case died on April 22nd, 29 suspected cases and 3 deaths have been reported in Northern DRC, including the areas of Nambwa, Mouma, and Ngay. The response to the outbreak has been swift, including contact tracing, […]

USA Malaria Risk Rising: Warnings for EN Central, WS Central, FL + OH

April 25th is World Malaria Day.  There are strong links between forecastable environmental conditions and malaria transmission via mosquitos.  Disease forecaster Ascel Bio observed higher than forecast cases in the US over this past winter.  While nearly all malaria cases in the US are imported from malaria endemic countries, weather patterns may lead to increases […]

New Zika Risk Along Mississippi Flyway

Disease forecaster Ascel Bio is issuing a watch notice for the areas around Davenport Iowa and Columbus Mississippi, following the emergence of environmental conditions there that are linked to the spread of the Zika carrying Aedes aegypti mosquito. Zika risk has remained high in roughly two dozen locations in Hawaii, the East Coast and other […]
Danger Closeup Insect Tick Lyme Disease Macro

Lyme Forecast to Increase in United States

  Ascel Bio assesses that Lyme disease risk is rising in the United States. The widespread warmth in February in the Eastern US (even as temperatures return to seasonal norms) indicate that monitoring and prevention strategies should be underway in the region. Ticks, which feed on deer, rats, and dogs, throughout the year, are more […]
Raw Meat Tasty Food Steak Beef Grill

E. Coli Cases Forecast to Increase in US

Disease forecaster Ascel Bio observed slightly higher than forecast rates of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) in parts of the U.S in the last week of January. Rates have since decreased to within forecast range, but cases are expected to increase over the next few months. The arrival of spring is already bringing increasing temperatures. This provides […]

Mumps Alerts for 6 States

Disease forecaster Ascel Bio is issuing alerts for mumps in 6 states: Missouri, California, Colorado, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, including an ongoing outbreak at the University of Missouri in Columbia. In the first 6 weeks of 2017, the CDC has recorded 767 cases of mumps nationwide, an increase of 468 cases from the same period […]

Chlamydia Alerts in 11 States

Two regions and 11 states geographically dispersed across the United States are reporting significantly higher incidences of chlamydia compared to Ascel Bio forecasts. Warnings are being issued for Kansas, Maine, New Hampshire, and North Dakota, as actual case counts were more than 2 standard deviations above forecasted case counts in the week ending January 22nd, […]

Spike in Pertussis in CO, Mountain Region

Ascel Bio: The Mountain region of the United States experienced a significantly higher number of Pertussis (Whooping Cough) cases in mid-January.  A surge of Pertussis cases (which has a roughly 7-10 day incubation period) coincided with record snows in many parts of the region, and cold January weather. Forecasts for the region had been “on […]

Pacific Mumps – Still “Off the Charts”; Also TX Risk

Ascel Bio: The Pacific region of the United States remains under a watch for Measles, with mid-January 2017 cases still well above forecast ranges.  A spike over the past few weeks has occurred, and follows a concerning number of cases in the Pacific region in December.  Mumps cases in the Pacific region occurred at three times […]